When electricity first appeared, people viewed it primarily as an interesting curiosity. Fun for salons and laboratories, but little more than that. No one truly foresaw how profoundly and dramatically electricity would change our society. Today we find ourselves at a similar tipping point with artificial intelligence (AI). And just like with electricity, we risk completely underestimating AI.
What makes this comparison relevant and why should we pay attention to it right now? History teaches us that revolutionary technologies usually begin as simple, barely impressive applications. We initially see them as toys, then as tools, and eventually as essential components of our existence. This happened precisely with electricity, and it's happening again with AI.
Electricity: The Silent Revolution
First Order: Simple Applications
Take the light bulb, for example. When Edison invented it, people found it useful, but not world-shaking. Yet it enabled a direct improvement in daily life by replacing darkness with light. Simple, but effective.
Second Order: Communication Changes
The telegraph and telephone transformed electricity from a curiosity into a powerful means of exchanging information. Suddenly, people could communicate over long distances, bringing about fundamental changes in economy, politics, and social structures.
Third Order: Power for Industry and Mobility
Electricity began powering factories and vehicles, radically accelerating production, transportation, and mobility. Wireless communication via radio also emerged, allowing information to spread even faster.
Fourth Order: Internet – The Digital Transformation
With digital networks and eventually the internet, electricity became the core of virtually every human activity. Economies, governments, and personal lives are now unimaginable without this infrastructure.
Fifth Order: The Birth of Artificial Intelligence
Electricity ultimately provided the infrastructure for something completely new: systems that could think and reason on their own—artificial intelligence. Here our future begins anew.
Artificial Intelligence: From Fun Toy to Essential Foundation
Remarkably, AI is following exactly the same evolution as electricity, but at a dizzying pace:
First Order: ChatGPT – The New Light Bulb
Just like the light bulb, many first discovered AI through ChatGPT. Fun, impressive, but initially not much more than that. A convenient way to write text or answer some simple questions. But don't underestimate its power: this was just the beginning.
Second Order: Agents and Autonomous Decision-Making
Currently, we see AI growing from simple chatbots to autonomous systems that independently solve problems, code, plan, and devise strategies. This is the AI equivalent of the telephone: still early, but already revolutionary in potential.
Third Order: AI Networks and Ecosystems
The next step goes beyond individual agents. When AI systems are connected, they will make decisions collectively and control systems. Supply chains, healthcare systems, and even governance processes will be fully controlled by interconnected AI networks.
Fourth Order: The World as One Brain
This is the point where AI not only becomes embedded in systems but becomes these systems itself. A global cognitive infrastructure, an exocortex, supporting all processes, from economy to education, from healthcare to governance. The internet was a revolution, but the internet with AI will be many times more powerful.
Fifth Order: Superintelligence – The Inconceivable
Finally, and this is where it gets really exciting, superintelligence emerges—AI that develops cognitive abilities far beyond what we can imagine. It's a point where technology not only solves our problems but creates entirely new possibilities.
Why Do We Underestimate AI?
The reason we underestimate technologies like AI is simple: exponential growth is difficult to comprehend. We think linearly, while AI grows exponentially. AI doesn't double its capabilities every decade, but every year, sometimes even months. We slowly see the beginning and incorrectly assume the future will follow the same pace. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Just as with electricity, we are now precisely at the point between the second and third order: AI is moving at breakneck speed from "fun and useful" to "indispensable and transformative." If we're not careful, we'll be completely surprised by the speed and scale of the changes.
Ethical Challenges: History Repeats Itself
Just like with electricity, AI brings not only technological but also important ethical questions. The parallels are striking:
| Aspect | Electricity Then | AI Now |
|---|
| Accessibility | Who gets access to electricity? Will there be a gap between illuminated and dark neighborhoods? | Who has access to AI technology? Is a new digital divide threatening? |
| Labor Market | Loss of jobs due to automation in factories, but also creation of new professions | Transformation of knowledge work, shift of tasks, new AI-related functions |
| Safety | Risks of electrocution, fire, network overload | Privacy concerns, cybersecurity, misuse of AI systems |
| Dependency | Society becomes completely dependent on stable power supply | Increasing dependence on AI systems for critical decisions |
The difference is that with AI, we still have the opportunity to proactively address these ethical issues. While ethical discussions around electricity often only arose after problems, with AI we can create frameworks in advance. This requires:
- Inclusive development: Ensuring AI technology is widely accessible
- Transparent systems: Understanding how AI reaches decisions
- Human control: Keeping ultimate responsibility with humans
- Fair distribution: Benefits of AI should benefit the entire society
How Do We Prevent Underestimation?
Awareness is the first step. Recognize that AI is not a gimmick or temporary trend, but a fundamental force that will change your industry, your job, and your life. This realization calls for action:
| Action Area | What to Do |
|---|
| Understand the Technology | Seriously delve into AI, understand how it works and what it can mean for your sector. |
| Invest in Skills | Ensure that your team, organization, or yourself possess the right skills to effectively apply and integrate AI. |
| Think Strategically Ahead | Don't see AI as a technology to use occasionally, but as the core of your future business model. |
A Future We Create Together
The time to take action is not tomorrow or next year—it's today. AI is not a trend, not hype, and certainly not a passing phenomenon. It is the foundation upon which the future is built, just as electricity once was.
The question we must ask ourselves now is not whether AI is important, but how we can use it to improve the world. History teaches us one thing clearly: those who understand and deploy the power of new technologies ultimately determine the future.
This time, we don't have to make the same mistake as our predecessors who underestimated electricity. Let's be prepared this time, so that we not only survive the changes but actively shape them and benefit from them maximally. AI offers us that chance—let's seize it.
